Tuesday, September 6, 2016

We can only predict the trajectory not the specific outcome

Every single human being has a plan.  Do this first.  That second.  That other thing third.  Presto, you've arrived at your destination.

But the reality is entirely different.

For example, in school you decide to study for a certain occupation.  But once you graduate you decide that there's no way you want work in that occupation.  So you get a job doing something 180 degrees from where you started.

Then that job leads you to something even more distant from where you started.

But there's an economic crisis, and the company downsizes.  The worst!

Except it allowed you to re-evaluate and re-invent yourself, and you find an opportunity you never would have found if it weren't for that downsizing.

And so forth.

In fact, the average person will have up to seven careers in a lifetime.  Not jobs - careers!

When you began your journey, there was no way you could have predicted where you are now.  But you could likely have predicted that over time, things would get better, even if there were some detours along the way. 

That's the trajectory.  Better over time.  And we can predict a trajectory based on the tiny wins and small successes we achieve.

Let's look at an alternative scenario.

You decide you hate your job and you're not going to lift a finger for that lousy boss or lousy company.  You'll show-up 9-5, but that's it. 

And your partner is a nag and doesn't appreciate you, so you'll minimize any interactions on that front. 

And it's a bad month to give-up smoking/sugar/fast food/alcohol because you're stressed.

Now you can't predict the specific outcome of this approach, but for sure you can see the trajectory, and it's not better over time.  It's likely job loss, or relationship loss, or some sort of sedentary disease or all three.

The power of tiny wins is this: they ensure that the trajectory is positive, that things get better over time. 

How so?

Because tiny wins provide a positive feedback loop.  Success breeds more success.  In fact, all success is based on the cumulative effect of tiny wins.  But you have to collect tiny wins like coins if you want the results.

Even more importantly, tiny wins give you a glimpse into another way of doing, another way of being, that you thought impossible. Now that you've achieved a small success, you know you can achieve it again. 

Impossibility morphs into reality.

I grew up in a family where nobody had ever attended higher education.  We didn't have a ton of money.  I moved around the country and attended eight schools in as many years.  We didn't have connections in high places.

Trajectory doesn't look great.

With such a hectic childhood, the only thing I could do was focus on achieving small things in the short term, because I had no idea where I would be next month or next year.

My tiny wins included making a good friend or two who were solid and smart.  Listening to the teacher and spending extra time on assignments.  Picking one sport and mastering each skill separately over time.

Each of those wins changed the trajectory.  For years I had no idea what I would do or where I would do it.  But the tiny wins led me to a graduate program in law at the University of Cambridge - one of the top 5 universities in the world.  With a free ride scholarship to boot.

I had no greater intelligence than anyone else, and no greater motivation (in fact I had no real ambition to speak of).  But I achieved and celebrated the small victories that put a smile on my face every day. 

Long-term goals are fine.  Aim there.  But use tiny wins to set the trajectory, and you may just fly right past that long-term goal into something even greater than you could have ever predicted.

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